We’re about five months out from the 2014 Congressional midterm elections, and I know what you’re thinking. What does Steve think will happen? Will Republicans win the Senate? Will they hold the House? Will the Reds turn things around, and make it into the post-season again?
Well I’m not sure about that last one; I sure hope so. But on the Congressional elections, here goes.
Although Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid’s forces have pretty significantly out-raised Republicans thus far in this election cycle, I think the odds are with Republicans, especially in the House, and to a lesser extent in the Senate.
Why? Well, first of all, midterm elections tend to be a referendum on how well the President is doing in office. And this President, is not doing a very good job. Obamacare is a disaster. The economy is still struggling. And Obama’s foreign policy is in a shambles. And on top of that, he’s got a series of unresolved scandals on his hands: the VA, the IRS, Benghazi…
To me, this has the makings of a wave election year. We’ve seen four of them in the last 20 years: 1994 and 2010 for Republicans; 2006 and 2008 for Democrats.
1994 was the year I was first elected to Congress. Republicans hadn’t been in the majority in the House of Representatives in 40 years (my whole life at the time, as I was 40 years old back then.) Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey came up with the Contract with America (let’s tell Americans in advance, what we’ll do if they elect us) and Americans elected Republicans.
In 2006, Americans were tired of our involvement in Iraq, the mismanagement of Katrina, George W. Bush, and a misbehaving Florida Republican Congressman named Mark Foley (who was sending salacious emails to male pages), and turned the House back over to Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.
Then in 2008, Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton in the spring, and John McCain in the fall, and Democrats controlled it all. There was record turnout in urban areas, where turnout had traditionally been relatively low, and Democrats were swept in, and Republicans (like me) were swept out.
Unfortunately for the country, with Democrats in charge of the candy store, they ran amuck. A budget-busting Stimulus (that we’re still trying to pay for), Dodd-Frank (that’s messed up the financial markets and lending into the foreseeable future), and Obamacare (do I need to say anything?) The American people, reacting in disgust and horror, gave Democrats the bum’s rush, pushed them out the door, and elected Republicans in droves.
This was the second time I was elected to Congress as a non-incumbent, which flipped the House to my party. There were only two Members of Congress, the other being Congressman Charlie Bass of New Hampshire, who were two time majority-makers. Charlie and I thought this was pretty cool (nobody else seemed to care.) Charlie unfortunately lost his seat again two years later, in 2012. So now I’m the only two time majority-maker, Republican or Democrat, in the House. (Who cares.)
Anyway, all the signs are there for a strong Republican election cycle. We have an unpopular Democrat President (Obama’s in the low 40% popularity range in all the polls.) By more than two to one, Americans when asked if we’re on the right track versus the wrong track, say we’re on the wrong track. And the American people overwhelmingly want change. And change in this case almost assuredly means change away from the policies of this President.
The question is, is it enough to be AGAINST President Obama and his policies. Or should Republicans actually stand FOR something? Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and John Barrasso of Wyoming are pushing for a second Contract with America. They want to specifically outline a set of goals that Republicans will push for if we are in a majority in the House and in the Senate.
Others, Mitch McConnell for example, believe this would be a mistake. They think this would give Democrats a fat target to aim at, and it will be enough this year to oppose Obama’s policies – excessive spending, a weak foreign policy, Obamacare.
For the record, I support the Second Contract approach. Even though it may be enough this year to be anti-Obama, I believe the American people deserve to know just what they’re voting for. Having a unifying set of principles and specific goals would also give the new Congress an agenda to move forward with after this fall’s elections are over, and the new Congress is sworn in in January. And it’s time we implement an agenda which will get the economy moving again, get Americans back to work, reduce excessive spending, and get us back to a balanced budget.
At least that’s the way I see it.
