As I begin writing this week’s blog, I’m on a plane somewhere over Ukraine, on my way back to the United States. Congress was not in session for the past week, and I’ve been accompanied on this trip by Democratic Congressman Steve Lynch of Massachusetts. Our mission was to assess the political situation in Ukraine, meet with our embassy personnel on the ground there who are protecting the interests of the United States, and meet with Ukrainian officials, most importantly Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who leads this country that is facing off at an existential time in its history, against Russia’s power-hungry Vladimir Putin.
Photo with Prime Minister Yatsenyuk
Some background. Ukraine is a nation of 44 million people, that’s strategically located between Russia and the West. It’s slightly smaller than the state of Texas, and is a former satellite of the Soviet Union, having gained its independence in 1991, when the communist Soviet Union was breaking apart. Kiev is its capital.
Ukraine has had a rocky existence since gaining its independence. Russia has looked greedily at Ukraine since their separation as Ukraine is considered the breadbasket of Eurasia, being the third largest producer of grain globally. One event which illustrates the lengths to which Russia will go to maintain its influence over Ukraine, was the dioxin poisoning of presidential reform candidate, Viktor Yoshchenko, by Russian agents. He survived, but was shockingly disfigured for life as a result of Russia’s attempt on his life (see the two accompanying photos.)
More recently, in 2010, another Viktor, this time Viktor Yanukovych was elected president, and was pulling Ukraine more into the sphere of Russia and away from the West. He was particularly corrupt, and targeted his pro-Western electoral opposition for selective prosecution. He had his opponent in the presidential election imprisoned on trumped-up charges. Then late last year he unexpectedly reneged on an agreement with the European Union, and turned to Russia instead.
Pro-Western protesters, mostly young people, took to the streets, urging the government to reform and allow a free and open society not under the Russian yoke. Yanukovych’s thugs responded by viciously attacking and beating the peaceful protesters. Then in a particularly notorious incident, more than 100 peaceful protesters were gunned down in Maidan (Independence) Square. The reaction of the Ukrainian people was to increase the number of protesters from a few thousand to a half million. Support for the regime collapsed, and the corrupt Yanukovych fled to Russia. An interim pro-Western government was put into place, and elections for president will be held this weekend.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin, of course, has attempted to take advantage of the instability in Ukraine to reestablish Russian influence over Ukraine. He first grabbed the Crimean region of Ukraine by sending in heavily-armed, non-uniformed Russian-speaking troops, first seizing the airports, media outlets, police stations, and other government buildings. He then held a bogus referendum to claim that the people of Crimea wanted to leave Ukraine and become part of Russia. Then he just annexed Crimea.
When Putin saw just how weak the West’s response was to the seizure of Crimea (the Europeans because of their “green” energy policy are so dependent on Russian gas and oil that they fear challenging Putin) and the Obama Administration as usual “leading from behind”, Putin saw an opportunity to grab even more territory. He’s doing this in eastern and southern Ukraine by placing 40 thousand troops on Ukraine’s border, and sending in armed thugs to occupy key government buildings and foment instability. These thugs are often led by Russian intelligence agents and out-of-uniform Russian military and police personnel. These Russian infiltrators then try to make it appear that there is a desire by the people to join Russia.
Putin will continue his aggression just as long as he thinks he can get away with it. He believes our European allies are weak, and so dependent on Russian energy resources that they will do very little to resist his aggressive actions. And Putin’s assessment of Obama is that he is indecisive and lacks resolve. In my opinion, he’s correct on both counts. And if he can devour Crimea, and other chunks of Ukraine, then Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Moldova, will be next on his menu.
