I’ll cut to the chase here. Yes, he could be. Now I’ll use the rest of this week’s blog to tell you why I think so.
I’m sure you’ve probably heard it before, but it’s worth saying again. No Republican has ever been elected President, without carrying the state of Ohio. And assuming that John Kasich is re-elected to the governor’s office this November, which I believe will occur, he’ll be the sitting governor of perhaps the most critical swing state in the nation, Ohio. And as Ohio’s governor, it would be hard to see any reasonable scenario under which John Kasich, the presidential candidate, wouldn’t carry Ohio. (His likely Democrat opponent in 2016 will be Hillary Clinton, and she’ll take New York, which any Democrat will, so she gets no real advantage there. Advantage Kasich.)
I also think that all the Republican governor candidates, Kasich, Christie, Jindal, Jebb Bush, Scott Walker, etc., have a built-in advantage over Republican Senate and House candidates, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, etc. The Republican base instinctively dislikes, and distrusts, Washington, and even though Republican candidates in Congress may well be fighting against the very things the Republican base dislikes about Washington, it still tarnishes them somewhat. Governors are seen as separated from Washington (even though a number of them may have previously served in Congress – Bobby Jindal for example.) Governors also have executive experience which is more similar to the powers exercised by a President (who leads the executive branch of the government.)
I also think John Kasich and his supporters will be able to make a credible case that he has had a quite successful tenure as governor of Ohio. When he took over as governor, the state’s financial picture was a mess. Ohio faced an $8 billion budget shortfall, and many predicted that a tax increase would be necessary. Fortunately, when Kasich was elected governor, Republicans also won back the state legislature, so he was able to impose some fiscal discipline. As a result, he balanced Ohio’s budget, and without a tax increase. This sent a positive message to the business community, and the state’s economy improved, resulting in unemployment dropping from above the national average (over 10%) to below it (below 7%).
I think Kasich’s ability to manage challenging budgets, is one of the strongest things he brings to the table. Most Americans, and the overwhelming majority of those who vote in Republican primaries, are extremely frustrated with Washington’s big-spending ways, and its inability to balance the federal budget. In 1994, (the year I was first elected to Congress,) John Kasich became Chairman of the House Budget Committee. For 30 years prior to that, Congress hadn’t been able to balance the federal budget. (Democrats controlled the House all those years.) John was determined to balance the budget. He was Paul Ryan, before there was a Paul Ryan. Under Kasich, the federal budget was balanced, for four years. If there was ever a time we needed the same kind of fiscal discipline at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, it’s following the irresponsible spending ways of Barack Obama. It’s the strongest argument John Kasich has. And I think people will understand it, and rally around it.
One of Mitt Romney’s greatest shortcomings, was that Democrats were successful in painting him as a guy who was out of touch with blue collar workers. John Kasich has solid blue collar roots; his father was a mailman (his father and mother were tragically killed by a drunken driver.)
Does Kasich have any weaknesses? Sure. All candidates for elected office do.
Democrats attacked him for working a stint at Lehman Brothers and, God forbid, making a lot of money. Some of my Tea Party friends are mad at John for accepting Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion in Ohio. And some of my Second Amendment friends haven’t forgiven him for supporting President Clinton’s assault-weapons ban over 20 years ago.
And, of course, John did run for President back in the year 2000, unsuccessfully. And if he couldn’t put together a winning campaign then, what makes you think he can do it now? I would argue that this year is quite a bit different from 2000. George W. Bush had locked up most of the Republican establishment support, and money, early on. Even though John McCain was able to run a pretty impressive insurgency campaign, Bush eventually handily won the Republican nomination, and ultimately the Presidency.
This time, the 2016 Presidential race, at least on the Republican side, is truly wide open. There are probably a dozen or more Republicans who, I believe, have a legitimate shot at winning the Presidency. And I would definitely include John Kasich with those who have a realistic shot at being the Republican nominee for President of the United States.
Then all we have to do is beat Hillary.
