Well, tomorrow is New Year’s Eve. So it’s time for me to do it once again – make my predictions for the upcoming year. But before I do that, let’s see how I did one year ago, when I predicted what would happen over the year that’s just wrapping up.
First, I said “if the Obama Administration reaches a deal with Iran on their nuclear program, it will be a really bad one.” Well I sure got that one right. The deal gave Iran virtually everything they wanted, and the U.S. got almost nothing. Terrible deal.
Second, I said “the Obama Administration will leave more U.S. troops in Afghanistan than they originally planned. Although they won’t admit it, pulling all U.S. troops out of Iraq was such a disaster (the rise of ISIS, etc.), that they actually learned a lesson, the hard way.” Well again, I hit this one on the nose. A headline story two months ago reads “In Reversal, Obama Says U.S. Soldiers Will Stay in Afghanistan to 2017.” Obama announced that he will leave twice as many troops in Afghanistan as he had planned, calling it a “modest but meaningful expansion of our presence” in Afghanistan.
Third, I predicted that “the U.S. economy will continue to improve, even though the political environment in Washington will still be toxic.” Got that one right too. The unemployment rate last year at this time was 5.6% — today it is 5.0%. Of course this economy would be doing much better with policies that would reduce the size and scope of government, and increase the private sector and encourage personal responsibility and initiative.
Fourth, I predicted “Republicans will push even harder for approval of the Keystone Pipeline. Unfortunately, Barack Obama will continue to bow to his radical environmental base, and block it. I hope I’m wrong on this one.” Unfortunately I wasn’t wrong. He blocked it.
And finally, my fifth prediction was “Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, and a slew of other candidates enter the Republican presidential primary process… Hillary also finally announces her candidacy, and even though she has a significant challenge from the left, will be the Democrat presidential nominee.” I basically got that prediction right. All of the Republican candidates I mentioned did get into the race, and I think 17 would constitute a “slew.” And Hillary did get in, and the Bernie Sanders campaign I would submit does constitute “a significant challenge from the left.” But the prediction would have been more accurate had I thrown in Donald Trump’s name with the others I mentioned. He has certainly been a major player in the nomination process thus far, but one year ago I didn’t see his impact on the race coming. That was probably my (and many others) biggest miss of the year.
Okay, that’s last year. Now for 2016. What’s going to happen over the upcoming year? Here goes.
First, I hate to say it, but I believe that radical Islamic attacks against innocent people will continue to take place around the world, and in the United States. This Administration’s refusal to name the enemy, and take sufficiently aggressive actions to defeat the enemy will continue to make us vulnerable. I hope I’m wrong, but fear I’m not.
Second, Obamacare will continue to unravel. It’s been a disaster since the debacle of its website rollout. Now the nation’s largest health insurance provider, UnitedHealth, is threatening to pull out of the Obamacare exchanges. Many other insurance providers already have. This could lead to a “death spiral.” The bottom line is, although a few Americans now get health insurance coverage who didn’t before, most Americans have inferior coverage to what they had before Obamacare, and are paying more for it.
Third, the overall economy, will remain much the same. It could be doing much better, but Barack Obama’s policies will continue to hold it back. Fortunately, the strength and resiliency of American businesses and the American people allow the American economy to survive and prosper despite even a feckless President like Barack Obama.
Fourth, on the local political scene, I think the race to watch is the County Commission race between Democrat Denise Driehaus and Republican Dennis Deters. Since Hamilton County, due to demographic changes, is trending blue (Democrat), and because this is a presidential election year, which traditionally brings out more Democratic voters, this should be advantageous to Denise Driehaus. However, I still believe that Dennis Deters will win, in a relatively close race.
And finally, fifth, what’s going to happen in the presidential race? Well, as I’ve said for seven years now, Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president (unless she’s indicted, which I doubt will happen, even though it probably should over her lying about her emails and Benghazi.) Now, as for the Republican side, it’s much more unclear, and interesting. Donald Trump has been on top for 6 months now, and nothing he has said (which many pundits thought would kill his candidacy), has seemed to hurt him in the polls. His two chief rivals at this time for the nomination appear to be Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. For what it’s worth, I believe Marco Rubio is best positioned to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election, but whether he’ll be the nominee or not, I have no idea. Cruz is strong in Iowa, and Trump is strong everywhere else. My concern has long been, and continues to be, that if Trump fails to win the nomination through the Republican primary process, or at a brokered convention should there be one, he’ll claim that he was not treated fairly, and thus break his pledge to support the ultimate Republican nominee, and run as an independent candidate. In that case, we hand the presidency to Hillary Clinton. Again I hope I’m wrong, but it’s a distinct possibility I believe.
So that’s the way I see it for 2016. I know I sort of wimped out on my fifth prediction, and gave an “on the one hand, on the other hand” prediction, but that’s the best I can do.
However it all comes out, I hope that 2016 is a very blessed year for you and your family.
Happy New Year!
