Well, it’s that time again. Time for me to predict what’s going to happen in the upcoming year. I’ll stick to government and politics, since whenever I stray to other areas, like sports, I’m such a homer that I always predict the Bengals will win the Super Bowl and the Reds will win the World Series. (Although on the sports front, I have to mention that my alma matter, the La Salle Lancers, won the Division II Ohio State Football Championship again this year, for the third year in a row. I never get tired of saying that! And congrats to St. X for winning the Division I State Championship.)
Okay back to my predictions for the upcoming year. First, Obamacare will be repealed. In fact, it will be one of the first orders of business after the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd. But it will be complicated. In order to avoid a Democrat filibuster in the Senate, we must first pass a budget, then pass the repeal through a process called reconciliation, which only requires 51 votes in the Senate (there are 52 Republicans), rather than the usual 60. That will satisfy Donald Trump’s and Congressional Republicans’ commitment to repeal Obamacare. But replacing it with something will be much dicier. Because we’ll need 60 votes in the Senate, and therefore at least 8 Democrat votes (and that’s assuming all 52 Republicans are on board.) It’s gonna be interesting – and messy.
My second prediction, assuming the first is correct and Obamacare is repealed – what will be in the replacement? Good question. Here are my predictions. We’ll keep the requirement that children up to 26 years of age can stay on their parents’ plans. We’ll keep the ability of those with pre-existing conditions to get healthcare coverage. And we’ll adopt all or some of the following reforms: allow insurance companies to sell their policies across state lines (to increase competition and lower prices); we’ll allow small businesses to join together to negotiate with insurance companies, and thus again keep prices down; and there will be at least an attempt to include some medical malpractice reform in the package, although the trial lawyers’ lobby will fight this tooth and nail.
Okay, next prediction, Mike Pence will be an extraordinarily active Vice President, and Donald Trump will rely greatly on his advice and skills, much as George W. Bush relied upon Dick Cheney. And this will be extremely important for Trump, if he wants to accomplish most of what he’s committed to. Just for the record, I’m a big fan of Mike Pence. We served together for eight years in the House of Representatives, and were on the same three committees: Foreign Affairs, Judiciary, and Small Business. He was even a member of the Foreign Affairs Middle East Subcommittee when I was the Chairman of that committee. We also went to campaign school together (yes, there is such a thing, although it’s only over a weekend) back in 1988. (We both lost our elections that year.) I was elected six years later, in 1994, and Mike was elected six years after that in 2000. He’s a great guy.
My fourth prediction. The wall will be built. Now some of it will be literally a wall (a beautiful, glorious one), some will be fencing, some may be virtual, but it’s gonna happen. The Democrats will scream and yell, say we’re a bunch of racists, and worse, but you can take this one to the bank. What I wouldn’t take to the bank, is that Mexico, is going to pay for it. There may be some attempt at claiming some aid, that would have otherwise gone to Mexico is somehow being directed to pay for the wall, but in my view, we’re going to pay for it. And it’s worth it. We’ve got to get control of our borders. And the wall will be a vital part of that effort.
Fifth, major tax reform may actually finally happen – after years of talking about it. I would expect a lowering of the tax rates on most individuals and businesses, and a reduction in the multitude of deductions and credits to pay for the reduction in tax rates.
Sixth. President Trump will push for, and probably get, a major infrastructure bill. His principal opposition may well come from Republicans, who haven’t given up on the goal of getting the deficit and national debt under control. The huge spending bill will be “paid for” by repatriating corporate profits which are sitting overseas. We’ll see.
Seventh, President Trump will name a solid conservative to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. The Democrats will focus all the pain and frustration of having been pummeled at the polls last month on this nominee. Trump’s pick will be confirmed despite the onslaught.
Eighth, Israel will once again have a friend and ally in the White House. The Obama Administration’s shameful display at the United Nations last week was a continuation of their policy of sucking up to our adversaries, and forsaking our allies. Trump will reverse that.
Ninth, Putin, China, North Korea, and Iran will continue to stir up trouble around the globe. They’ll all test our new President’s resolve. They’ll want to see if the case the Democrats tried to make during the campaign, that Trump is unprepared, and unsuited for the role of Commander-in-Chief, is true or not. My prediction is that Trump will prove to be up to the task, but only time will tell.
And my tenth and final prediction for 2017 – Reds win the Series and Bengals win the Super Bowl! No, I said I wasn’t going to stray from government and political predictions this year. So for my last real prediction, the jihadists will continue to attempt to target U.S. citizens and the West, here in the United States and around the globe. Their philosophy of death and intolerance, and the promise of 72 virgins awaiting them on the other side for their dastardly acts, is as strong as ever. We must crush radical jihadist terrorism, or it will destroy us. And I think Trump understands this, although unfortunately, our soon-to-be-former Commander-in-Chief, never did.
Well, there you have it – my ten predictions for 2017. We’ll know a year from now how right (or wrong) I was. But whatever happens, I wish you and your loved ones a prosperous and healthy New Year. And thanks for giving me the honor to represent you in the upcoming 115th Congress. God bless you, and God bless the United States of America!
