In 5 days, Iowans will gather in schools, and libraries, and churches, at nearly 1,700 locations around the state, to pick a President. They’ll gather together with their neighbors in groups, and try to convince each other why the candidate they support is best, and by the end of the evening, the rest of America will know their decision. Well, usually we’ll know their decision by then; but four years ago we were told Mitt Romney was the Republican winner in Iowa – by 8 votes out of approximately 125,000 cast! Almost three weeks later, after a recount, we learned that Rick Santorum had actually beaten Romney – by 34 votes. Of course Romney went on to win the Republican nomination, but lose the general election to Barack Obama. Curses.
So what will happen this time around? Let me start with the Republican race, since I’m obviously more familiar with the dynamics there. The big story on the Republican side thus far has been – Donald Trump. And I’ll be the first to admit, when he first got into the race, I didn’t take his chances of being the nominee too seriously. He’s proved me, and a lot of other people, wrong on that count. He has an uncanny ability to undermine, and destroy, anyone who takes him on. Let’s look at the record.
The first Republican presidential candidate to actually criticize Donald Trump, was former Texas Governor Rick Perry. He called Trump a “cancer on conservativism.” Trump shot back at Perry, claiming that Perry “lacked energy, brain power, and toughness.” Perry, known for being a rugged Texan, responded “let’s get a pull-up bar out there, and let’s see who can do the most pull-ups.” Looking at the two of them, I bet Perry could beat Trump in a pull-up contest, but Perry’s the one who had to drop out of the race, largely as a result of Trump’s withering attacks.
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul was the next Republican rival to take on Donald Trump. He ran a TV attack ad against Trump, using old clips of Trump saying he identified more as a Democrat than as a Republican, thought the economy generally does better under Democrats, is for single-payer healthcare, and is a big fan of both Hillary and Bill Clinton. Then at one of the earlier debates, Rand Paul criticized Trump for “sophomoric” attacks on other candidates’ appearances, specifically Carly Fiorina’s, and Trump shot back that because of Rand Paul’s low ratings in the polls, he didn’t even belong on the stage with the others, and besides he’d never attacked Rand Paul on his looks and “there’s plenty of subject matter there.” Rand Paul continues to struggle in the polls, and as we all know, Trump continues to dominate.
Next, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, who was having trouble getting much traction or attention to his candidacy, made the decision to take on The Donald. Here are a few of the things Senator Graham had to say about Donald Trump. “Donald Trump is a complete idiot… He’s a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot… I don’t think he has a clue about anything… Tell Donald Trump to go to Hell… He’s the world’s biggest jackass… and even jackasses are offended by Donald Trump…” (It went downhill from there.) What did Trump have to say about Graham? He called Graham a “lightweight and an idiot… he doesn’t seem like a very bright guy. He actually probably seems to me not as bright as Rick Perry. I think Rick Perry probably is smarter than Lindsay Graham.” Then he famously gave out Lindsey Graham’s personal cellphone number, and encouraged people to call him anytime, day or night. Lindsey finally dropped out of the race about a month ago.
Jeb Bush has probably been the most consistent critic of Donald Trump. From the beginning, Bush has claimed that Trump is not qualified for the presidency, calling Trump the “chaos candidate”, saying he’s “unhinged” and that he won’t be able to “insult your way to the presidency.” Trump seemed to have Bush’s number from the beginning, when he devastatingly labeled Jeb Bush as the “low energy candidate.” No matter how much energy Bush has demonstrated at an unlimited number of events, Bush has been unable to escape the label. Bush remains at low single digits in most polls, and Trump continues to crush early expectations. Now when Bush has turned to his mother, Barbara Bush, who is truly beloved among most Republicans, to do a last ditch TV ad for him, Donald Trump belittles the effort as Bush “desperately needing mommy to help him.”
Ben Carson was right in there, a strong second to Trump in most polls, and ahead of Trump in Iowa, until he took a relatively gentle swipe at Trump. He implied that the Lord was a big part of his own life, but that “I don’t get that impression with him (Trump). Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t get that.” That was all the excuse Trump needed to unload on Ben Carson. He used Ben Carson’s own revelations in an autobiographical book he’d written to skewer him. “He has a pathological temper… you hit somebody in the face with a lock, and go after your mother with a hammer… and that’s supposed to make you credible?” Game, set match to Trump. After being in the lead in Iowa, Carson too is now down in single digits.
Most recently, Texas Senator Ted Cruz was Trump’s biggest threat in Iowa. He was even ahead of Trump. Then Trump planted the seed that Cruz wasn’t even eligible for the presidency – why he was a darn Canadian. Across the spectrum, from media pundits, to other candidates, to Ted Cruz himself, Trump’s charge was ridiculed. Until it worked. It helped that Cruz had made so many enemies in Washington, that no one, I mean no one, would come to Cruz’s defense. And it helped that Cruz and Rubio were beating each other up, hoping to be the alternative to Trump when he crashed and burned as the pundits had been predicting was inevitable – for seven months now.
So what does all this mean? It means that Donald Trump is well positioned to win the Republican Iowa Caucus. And that’s my prediction.
As for the Democrats, the energy seems to be with Bernie Sanders. But his supporters are younger than Hillary’s and thus arguably less likely to turn out than hers. That being said, I give the edge to Bernie over Hillary in Iowa.
One final thing. If Trump is ultimately the Republican nominee, I think he may make a much stronger general election candidate than most political pundits give him credit for. Why do I say this? Because of his recent battle with Bill and Hillary Clinton. Hillary claimed that Trump has “demonstrated a penchant for sexism.” Trump shot back, immediately, that if Hillary wanted to play the “sexist card”, he’d be happy to discuss how Hillary had bullied women to silence them about her sexual-predator husband. This wasn’t the response the Clintons had expected. In the past the Clinton apologists had successfully defended Bill Clinton’s reprehensible behavior by smearing his victims. One of Clinton’s most rabid defenders was James Carville, who with Clinton victim Paula Jones in mind, had claimed that “if you drag a hundred dollar bill through a trailer park, you never know what you’ll find.” (Having spent the first six years of my life in a trailer park, I always resented this remark.)
Trump warned Hillary and Bill in no uncertain terms, not to “play the war on women, or women being degraded, card.” The Clintons, at least for the time being, backed off.
And if the Clintons cower before Trump (the thinking goes) Putin, and ISIS, and the mullahs of Iran, and North Korea, and (fill in the blank), will be next to quake in their boots before the mighty Trump.
We’ll see.
Since I wrote this week’s blog, there’s been an unexpected development. Donald Trump has said that he intends to skip tomorrow night’s debate in Iowa. He alleges that Fox News, and Megyn Kelly in particular, are biased against him. Although I don’t believe this will hurt him among his current supporters, it might well adversely impact him among undecided Iowa voters. There’s still a chance of course that Trump might decide to participate in the debate after all. If I were Trump, I would.