The Debate

Well, tomorrow’s the big day – the first Republican presidential debate of the 2016 election cycle – and in Cleveland, Ohio! Like the Republican convention next year, it’s not in Cincinnati, but it’s still pretty cool that the first debate and the Republican convention are both in Ohio.

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So what’s going to happen?  That’s the subject of this week’s blog.  The truth is, none of us knows for sure, but that won’t stop me from weighing in.  Here goes.

There are, of course, actually two debates.  The main event at 9 p.m. featuring Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie and John Kasich.  And what Lindsey Graham cleverly referred to as the “Happy Hour Debate” at 5 p.m including Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Jim Gilmore and George Pataki.  Lindsey took a shot at Trump commenting “five o’clock start drinking, and by nine o’clock, Donald may make sense to you, if you drink enough.”  Kind of snarky, but in fairness, Trump hasn’t been especially complimentary of Lindsey Graham, calling him a “stiff” and an “idiot” and giving out his private phone number.  Graham took the opportunity to release a pretty clever video, which in case you haven’t seen it, you can do so by clicking here.

So, back to the debate.  How important is it?  In my opinion, it will give probably a couple candidates who do better than expected, an opportunity to get some traction in the race.  Let’s face it, most of the attention has been going to Donald Trump.  And I expect him to say at least a few fairly controversial things, which the press will eat up and comment endlessly about.  But will he be as dismissive toward his fellow candidates as he normally is, when they’re right there on the stage with him?  I’m not sure.  And Trump may feel that this is an opportunity to actually appear “presidential”, and why punch down at the other candidates, when in his mind they are probably all his inferiors.  Of course I’m only speculating here, and I could be completely wrong.  But that won’t stop me from opining, so I’ll continue.

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I would expect Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham to be particularly impressive on foreign policy.  And even though Lindsey and the other “Happy Hour” participants are at the children’s table because they are currently polling lower than the top ten, I wouldn’t count them out.  All seventeen Republican candidates are successful and accomplished individuals, either in the political or business world, and in a few cases, in both.  And if we’ve learned anything from the Republican primary campaign last time around, it’s that each of them may well have his (or in one case, her) day at or near the top of the pack.

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I would also expect the former and current governor candidates to be impressive, as a lot of them have actually accomplished quite a bit for their states, and arguably could do the same for the country.  There are nine of them in the race thus far, and if former Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich gets in, as some expect, that will make it an even ten.  Whereas I’d like to give them all equal time, in the interest of keeping this blog at a reasonable length, I’ll comment on just five of the ten.

First, Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida.  He’s the choice of a lot of the Republican establishment, to the extent that there is one.  He and his superPAC have raised $114 million to date, smashing the next highest fundraiser, Hillary Clinton, who weighed in at $45 million.  He’s a good debater, very personable, and is unlikely to make any major gaffes at the debate.  However, he’s more moderate on a number of issues than a lot of Republicans who vote in the primaries, most notably on Common Core and immigration.  Arguably, this might make him a stronger general election candidate, but he has to win the primary first, and that’s certainly not a forgone conclusion.

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Chris Christie of New Jersey.  He should do well in the debate.  He’s quick on his feet, and very knowledgeable.  And he’s been elected twice as a Republican governor in a very Democratic state.  However, he reminds me a lot of Rudy Giuliani the last time around – probably too moderate for most Republican primary voters.  And even though there’s no evidence he knew anything about it or played any role in it, his amateur hour staff probably torpedoed any chance he might have had at winning the presidency with the “Bridgegate” lunacy.

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Rick Perry of Texas.  His “oops” moment in the first debate last time, killed his presidential campaign before it even got off the ground.  In his defense, he’d just had back surgery and was heavily medicated at the time, but presidential primaries are the big leagues, and when you’re ‘splaining, you’re losing.  I think he’ll be much better prepared this time.

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Scott Walker of Wisconsin.  He’s a survivor.  He was twice elected governor of a tough state for a Republican, Wisconsin, and survived a recall election, all within four years.  He also fought some of the most hardcore public employee unions in the nation, and won.  He’s not a real flashy guy, but I think he’ll hold up well in the debate, and ultimately in the campaign.

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And finally, our governor, John Kasich.  Twice elected governor of the state it’s probably most critical for a Republican to win, Ohio, and the second time he won 86 of 88 counties.  I served in Congress with John for six years, and during that time he was Chairman of the House Budget Committee.  He was instrumental in getting the federal budget balanced for four straight years, for the first and only time in the last half a century.  And as governor of Ohio, he inherited a real mess from former governor Ted Strickland, turned huge deficit spending into a surplus, dramatically improved the economy, reduced taxes, and cut the unemployment rate in half (although Barack Obama likes to take credit for that.)  I expect our governor to be one of the standouts at the debate, and I’d put him in the top five category for most likely to be the Republican nominee for President.

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And although not a governor, I’ve been very impressed with Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson.  I spoke with Carly over the phone a few weeks ago.  (She’d called to thank me for writing about her in my blog).  I think she’s great.  And Ben Carson is as impressive a guy as you’ll ever meet.  He spoke to a group of Members of Congress known as the Conservative Opportunity Society last week.  (I’m a member.)  The group was started by Newt Gingrich about 30 years ago, and Congressman Steve King of Iowa is chairman of the group now.  Being a neurosurgeon, Dr. Carson would be a superb choice in articulating why we need to get rid of Obamacare.  But he’s very knowledgeable pretty much across the board.  We couldn’t go wrong with Ben Carson as our nominee.

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So that’s the way I see it.  Tomorrow night should be very interesting.  If possible, in order to do justice to all the candidates, try to catch the “Happy Hour” debate at 5, as well as the main event at 9.  We have some great candidates participating in both debates.

Any of the 17 would make a heck of a lot better president than Hillary, or Bernie Sanders, or Joe Biden, or any of the other Democrats seeking the office of the presidency.  After all, our country can’t afford, in effect, a third Obama term.

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