The Home Stretch

Well Trump had another big night last night.  In fact, it was HUUUUGE!  He crushed Ted Cruz and John Kasich in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.  Wasn’t even close in any of the five states.

Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks about the results of the Michigan, Mississippi and other primary elections during a news conference held at his Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Florida, March 8, 2016.  REUTERS/Joe Skipper

So where does that leave us?  Next week Indiana is the battleground state.  And Donald Trump’s rivals, in an attempt to stop him there, have agreed to work together, sort of, to defeat him.  Ted Cruz announced to great fanfare that John Kasich would “pull out” of Indiana to give Cruz a straight shot, one on one, of taking Donald Trump down in Indiana.  And in return, Cruz would pull back in Oregon and New Mexico, giving Kasich the opportunity to go mano a mano with Trump in those upcoming states.

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Well, almost immediately, both Kasich and Cruz said things which greatly questioned the soundness of such a strategy.  Kasich said that Indiana voters “ought to vote for me” and not Ted.  And the Cruz campaign, rather than tell voters in Oregon and New Mexico to vote for Kasich, said “we’re simply letting folks know where we will be focusing our time and resources… we never tell voters who to vote for.”

Trump used the deal as an opportunity to cast aspersions onto his opposition, as he always (usually successfully) does.  Trump accused Cruz and Kasich of “collusion” and said it showed how “weak” they were.

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But will it work?  I doubt it, for several reasons.  First, it assumes that a candidate has the power to tell his supporters “don’t vote for me, vote for this other guy.”  (Which they’re not really saying anyway.)  Voters thankfully are a pretty independent-minded group of people, and don’t like to be told who or who not to vote for (at least Republican voters).  And besides, if Kasich, or Cruz, winds down their campaigning or television ad-buying in a state, those voters might well go to Trump, and not to the intended candidate.  So I’m dubious that this new strategy will work.  Besides, it’s probably too late.  Eighty percent of the states have already held their primary or caucus.  This thing is a hail mary pass, and how many of those are completed?

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So, will Donald get to the 1,237 delegates he needs before the convention?  Well, after yesterday, there are the following states left: Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, and the big enchilada, California.  And the delegate count as of last night is Trump 954, Cruz 562, Kasich 153, and a smattering of delegates for Rubio and other candidates who have already dropped out.  And yes, I do think that Trump is likely to either already have the required 1,237 delegates by the end of the primary process, or be so close that he’ll pick up the necessary delegates to push him over the top before the first ballot is cast at the convention.

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Of course there are a lot of folks who want to stop Donald Trump at all costs, for a variety of reasons.  Some think he’s not really a conservative.  After all, he’s contributed to Democrat candidates over the years, including Hillary Clinton herself.  He’s said nice things about Planned Parenthood.  He’s opposed to free trade.  He’s for raising taxes.  He’s bitterly attacked George Bush’s foreign policy, especially on Iraq.  And he thinks entitlement programs should be off limits when considering how to tackle our $19 trillion national debt.

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Others oppose Trump because they think he’s said so many knuckleheaded things, that he’ll not only lose to Hillary Clinton, but he’ll be a disaster for other Republican candidates running this year as well.  For example, Republicans have tenuous control over the United States Senate.  And there happen to be far more Republican seats up for grabs this time than Democrat seats.  The current Senate is 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats.  Those Republican Senators considered most vulnerable this time around are Mark Kirk of Illinois, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, John McCain of Arizona, and our own Rob Portman of Ohio.

However, I firmly believe that Rob will defeat former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, and retain his seat in the Senate for a number of reasons, no matter who the Republican nominee for President is.  First of all, although I served with Ted Strickland in Congress for a decade or so, and like him personally, he has a lousy record as Ohio’s governor, and the Portman folks I’m sure will use this very effectively in the campaign.  And most importantly, Rob has always received high praise, and deservedly so, for his record in the House, as head of the OMB (Office of Management and Budget), as the U.S. Trade Representative, and now as a United States Senator.

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Okay, back to Trump.  I personally do not think it’s at all clear that Trump will be harmful to Republican candidates down ballot.  Just look at turnout among Republican and Democratic voters this year, as compared to 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama was on the ballot.  Republican voters are turning out in droves.  Democrats have fallen off dramatically, even with the enthusiasm accompanying the Bernie Sanders campaign.  Let’s take Ohio for example.  The Republican turnout was up 68% this year over the last presidential election year, 2012.  And Democrat turnout this year?  It was DOWN, 50% from 2012.  And nationally, it’s a similar story.  8.5 million more Republicans have turned out to vote than four years ago.  And 4.5 million FEWER Democrats have turned out this time around.

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All that being said, if Trump is the Republican nominee (and I believe he will be), he’s got to improve considerably if he’s going to beat Hillary Clinton for the presidency.  He’s got to undo some of the damage he’s done by saying really stupid things about women, Hispanics, POWs… Trump’s new political guru, Paul Manafort, got a lot of attention recently when he said, in effect, that Donald Trump was playing a part, or acting, at his rallies and on the campaign trail, and that that act would evolve into a more responsible character once Trump won the primary and faced Hillary Clinton in the general election.  He said for example that Donald Trump would make more serious policy speeches.  Coincidently, or perhaps not, Trump is making a major foreign policy speech today in Washington.  It is expected to cover national security as well as global trade and economic policies.  Perhaps the evolution of Trump as a candidate is already underway.

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As far as I’m concerned, it can’t happen soon enough.

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