Sometimes during the course of a campaign, candidates say something they never recover from. It happened to Mitt Romney in 2012. And it happened to Hillary this year. And arguably it happened to Barack Obama back in 2008, but as in many things, he got away with it.
Let’s start with Romney in 2012. He was at a private fundraiser for his campaign in Boca Raton, Florida, about six months before the election. Since it was a private fundraiser, and the press hadn’t been invited, he apparently figured that what he said was off the record, so he could be completely candid. Well one of the bartenders present had a hidden camera, and videotaped him saying, in effect, that 47% of Americans pay no income tax, are dependent on the government, were going to vote for Obama no matter what, and Romney wasn’t going to “worry about those people.”
Now even though this fundraiser took place in May, the video wasn’t released by the Obama campaign and its allies until September, so it could do maximum damage to the Romney campaign. Even though I get what Mitt was trying to say, he said it “inartfully” (his words.) It made the Democrats’ attack on him, that he was just some rich guy who didn’t care about nearly half the American population, entirely credible. He never recovered, and he lost the election.
Hillary had a similar moment this past year. About two months before the election, at a fundraiser, Hillary let her guard down, and admitted what she really thought about Trump supporters: a “basket of deplorables… they’re racist, sexist, Islamophobic, and xenophobic.”
Now as you know, I was on the campaign trail this year too, as Members of Congress have to run every two years. And as I drove around my congressional district, I began to see signs pop up, especially in the more rural parts of the district, saying “Deplorable and Proud of It” or some version of that sentiment. I also began seeing T-shirts and sweatshirts to the same effect. A lot of people took Hillary’s insult as a badge of honor, a rallying cry. And these “deplorables” turned out in droves on election day – and they sure didn’t vote for Hillary. And it’s my opinion that she never recovered from her scornful comment about an awful lot of law-abiding, God-fearing, hardworking, patriotic Americans.
One more example of a comment, in my view similar to Romney’s “47%” and Hillary’s “deplorables”: this time by none other than our soon-to-be-former President, Barack Obama. It was 2008, and in the primary, candidate Barack Obama was at a fundraiser (there’s something about candidates saying stupid things at their own fundraisers.) Even though he was in San Francisco, he insulted voters in Pennsylvania, saying that “they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment…” Hillary, and later John McCain tried to use this comment against Obama, but he was able to beat them both anyway.
Why did Obama skate while Romney and Hillary’s comments were fatal to them? First of all, the press was protective of Obama, never really going after him like they did with Romney, or Hillary, or Trump for that matter. They’d mention an Obama gaffe once (if you were lucky) and then drop it. Examples: “I’ve now been in 57 states – I think one left to go.” Obama referred to the Austrian language (there’s no such thing; they speak German.) And Obama referred to “my Muslim faith” – a helpful George Stephanopoulos stepped in and said “you mean your Christian faith.” These gaffes were just flashes in the pan. A friendly press quickly buried them. With other candidates the press is like a dog with a bone, and never lets go.
And as significant a fact as the press’s love affair with Obama, was the fact that Obama’s opponent in 2008, George W. Bush, was held in such low esteem by his eighth year in office. The Iraq War by then was very unpopular, we were in the middle of a financial meltdown, and Bush’s approval rating was down around 22% (Obama’s this year was about 50%.) So by election day, Obama’s “clinging to guns and religion comment”, was mostly forgotten.
Well, that’s my opinion. But it’s just that – an opinion. Let me know what you think.
