Senator Ted Cruz of Texas this week announced that he’s running for the Republican nomination for President of the United States. Will he be the nominee? I don’t know.
Here is a somewhat comprehensive list of the most likely Republicans to throw their hats into the ring: Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Pence. There may still be others, but these are the ones most often mentioned, and who have expressed a reasonable degree of interest in running.
So when it’s all said and done, which ones have the best chance of actually becoming the nominee? I’m glad you asked. Here are the three I think have the best chance of surviving what will surely be a grueling primary process, and becoming the Republican nominee for President.
But first, a caveat. I am not saying that I’m supporting any of these three candidates over any of the others. I generally stay out of primaries and focus my energies on the general election. I like all of the Republican candidates who have been mentioned for President thus far. And I will fully support and campaign for whoever wins the Republican nomination. I’m merely revealing in this week’s blog the three candidates I believe have the best chance of being that nominee. Okay? Here goes.
Jeb Bush is, for lack of a better term, the “establishment” choice at this time. He’ll raise the most money, early, and that’s important, but doesn’t ensure success. Both his father and brother were President, and that gives him a built-in identity, and credibility, and expectations. But it also gives him baggage, which fairly or unfairly, he must carry. He inherits the wrath of the Bush-haters, and there are still a lot of them. He also probably cancels out one of Hillary’s weaknesses, Clinton-fatigue. A Hillary Clinton Presidency almost unavoidably dredges up Bill Clinton and all of his shortcomings. A Jeb Bush Presidency would similarly bring with it memories of both the Bush ’41 and ’43 Presidencies, both good and bad.
In my view, Jeb Bush’s greatest challenge in obtaining the Republican nomination for President will be that he’s out of step with the Republican base on two key issues. On education, he’s been a vocal supporter of Common Core. The base hates it. And he’s far more liberal on immigration than most Republicans. That’s why I give an edge to the following two Republican candidates: Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.
Marco Rubio’s parents fled Cuba in 1956, and their son is now one of only 3 Latinos in the United States Senate. The only chink in his conservative armor is his early leadership on liberalizing immigration, but he seems to have backed off from that, in my view, flawed position. Although his opponents for the nomination will likely use that earlier immigration stance against him, I think primary voters may forgive him, taking into consideration his ethnicity. We’ll see.
If Bush falters, which I believe is likely, Marco Rubio may benefit more than any other candidate, since Bush and Rubio are both Floridians, and therefore a significant number of Bush supporters may naturally gravitate toward Rubio. Florida is also a huge swing state (like Ohio) and a candidate from one of the large, up-for-grabs states, has a built in advantage for the nomination.
Now to fill out my top three most likely Republican nominees for President, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. He’s won the governorship in a blue (Democrat) state. He’s fought the powerful public employees unions – and won. He’s fought a recall – and won. He’s impressive.
Now he’s not a college graduate. That’s unusual for a presidential candidate nowadays, but I don’t think it will hurt him. And he doesn’t have a lot of foreign policy experience. But neither did Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama. (I’d argue that Bill Clinton was mediocre on foreign policy, and Obama’s been a total disaster.) That being said, I think Scott Walker has one of the best chances of being the Republican nominee for President. Of course only time will tell.
Also up for grabs in 2016 is one-third of the United States Senate seats, and all of the House of Representatives. The Democrats need to pick up four or five seats (depending on who wins the Presidency) in the 100 member Senate in order to put Harry Reid back in the driver’s seat. And they’d have to win a whole lot of House seats to put Nancy Pelosi back in charge of “the People’s House.”
One of those seats which she and her liberal cohorts may be targeting next time, is yours truly’s. In a Presidential election year, more Democrat voters traditionally turn out, so I am trying to get my war chest built up for any potential challenge. I have to report how much I have raised by next Tuesday, March 31st, at midnight.
If you’d like to help me have a good showing, you can make a secure online contribution by clicking here, or you can send a check to Steve Chabot for Congress, 632 Vine Street, Suite 805, Cincinnati, OH 45202. I really appreciate your help.
See you next week.
