In the latest polls, Donald Trump is crushing his opposition for the Republican nomination for President. He’s more than double the next candidate in line, Jeb Bush. He’s soundly beating Ted Cruz among self-identified tea party voters, Mike Huckabee among evangelicals, and Jeb Bush among moderates. And they were supposed to be the strongest candidates among these groups.
Is it real? And can it last? Once in a while, although rarely, political lightning strikes. A former bigtime wrestler, with no political experience, is elected governor of Minnesota (Jessie Ventura). The governor of California is recalled, and replaced by an Austrian bodybuilder, action movie star, with no political experience (Arnold Schwarzenegger – “ I’ll be back”.)
Could it happen again, this time at the national level, and for the presidency? Maybe so.
On both the Republican and Democrat side, it’s not playing out the way virtually all the political pundits predicted. On the Republican side, Donald Trump is kicking butt and taking names. Why? I was talking to a local auto dealer the other day (I didn’t ask his permission, so I won’t mention his name), and here’s the way he put it. “In recent elections, Republican presidential candidates have seemed afraid to take the gloves off. Their handlers have spoon-fed them mush. Donald Trump is saying what a lot of people think. He’s blunt about it. He’s not afraid of offending anyone.” That sounds about right to me.
On the Democrat side, Hillary was supposed to glide to her coronation as the Democrat nominee, and ultimately become our first woman president. But it’s not going so smoothly for her. Her email scandal has got her tied in knots, and who knows, might end up with her being indicted. The speaker fees/foundation scandal has made her look terrible. Far more Americans, when polled, now say she is untrustworthy, than think she’s believable. And her current principal rival for the Democrat nomination, Vermont socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, has not only caught up with her in certain key states, but is actually beating her.
Now it looks like Vice President Joe Biden might just get in the race. He met with Senator Elizabeth Warren over the weekend, and one speculation is Biden will get in the race, commit to serving only one term, name Warren as his vice presidential running mate, setting her up to run for president four years down the road. The speculation further has President Obama backing this plan and giving Biden the green light to run, thus stabbing Hillary Clinton in the back. If you would like to delve into the dynamics of this more, I’d highly recommend a book I just finished called Blood Feud, the Clintons vs. the Obamas. It’s very well written and very interesting. The gist of the book is that the Clintons and the Obamas basically hate each other. It goes back to the bitter presidential primary of 2008 when Barack Obama knocked off Hillary Clinton who was that time, just like this time, the presumptive Democratic nominee. During the course of that battle, Obama basically called Bill Clinton a racist. And Bill Clinton implied that Obama should be serving him coffee, not running for President.
Then when Obama won the presidency he, in the tradition of Don Corleone in the Godfather, kept his friends close and his enemies closer, by appointing Hillary Clinton his Secretary of State. He let her travel the globe, but kept foreign policy power to himself.
According to the book, Bill Clinton was strongly urging Hillary to run against Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2012, but she wouldn’t do it. Obama’s chances of reelection in 2012 were looking pretty shaky, so he turned to Bill Clinton for help. According to the book, an understanding was reached between Obama and Bill Clinton, that in return for Bill Clinton’s help, Obama would support Hillary for President this time around. Clinton worked his tail off, gave the keynote address for Obama at the Democratic Convention, was instrumental in getting Obama reelected, and then Obama reneged on the deal. (Knowing Obama, this sounds true.)
By the way, I started reading this book on the plane on my way to Eastern Europe about a week and a half ago, and finished it on the plane back to the United States. The purpose of the trip was to assess the economic, political, and most importantly national security impact of recent Russian actions in Eastern Europe, particularly in Ukraine. I was in Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania last year for similar reasons. This time I and my companions traveled to Moldova, Hungary, Latvia, and Estonia, all formerly behind the Iron Curtain. While in Latvia, I met up with Senators John McCain, John Barrasso of Nebraska and Sheldon Whitehead of Rhode Island, and visited a NATO military base where U.S. troops are part of the security mission. I’m including below a few photos.
With Senators John McCain and John Barrasso and Latvian general at NATO military base.
With marines at US embassy in Hungary.
With Prime Minister of Moldova.
With marines at US embassy in Moldova.
Okay, back to Trump. Can he win? I’ll be honest, I didn’t much think so until very recently. Now I just don’t know. Some political pundits are still of the opinion that the Trump phenomenon is just a summer fling. And as we get into the fall, and certainly by the early primaries and caucuses next year, Trump will have fallen back to earth, and other, more traditional candidates, will be in the lead.
I just don’t know.
