Trump and Kasich vs Clinton and Castro

No, that’s not Fidel or Raul Castro I’m predicting will be Hillary’s running mate in the fall, but Julian Castro, who is the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).  He is the former mayor of San Antonio, Texas, and he gave the keynote address at the last Democratic National Convention – the first Hispanic ever to do so.  He’s relatively young, 41, which will balance the fact that Hillary is  — well, older. His identical twin brother is a Member of Congress, serving in his second term.

Julian Castro democrats

I believe Democrats think they have a chance to run up the numbers with Hispanic voters this year because of Donald Trump’s – shall we say ungracious, or perhaps ill-considered, comments about Hispanic immigrants (that they are criminals and rapists, etc.)  And Democrats may be right.  It seems to me that Hillary will consider quite a few running mates, but may well, in the end, pick Julian Castro as her running mate.  (Of course that assumes that she hasn’t been indicted, and that may be a big assumption.)

2 a big assumption

Okay, now for the Republicans.  Last night was a BIG night for Donald Trump.  He beat Marco Rubio in Rubio’s home state of Florida, “by a lot”, as Trump likes to say, and as a result, Rubio suspended his campaign for the presidency.  Besides Florida, Trump took Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and the Northern Mariana Islands.  John Kasich won his home state of Ohio.  And Cruz won nowhere.  So we’re down from 17 Republican candidates  for president, to 3 – Trump, Kasich, and Cruz.

Republican presidential candidate Gov. John Kasich makes a point during an interview with the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in Washington October 6, 2015. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts - RTS3ACK

And here’s where I’ll go out on a limb, and predict that Donald Trump chooses John Kasich to be his Vice Presidential running mate.  Why?  Well first of all, Ohio is a key state, maybe THE key state when it comes to winning the presidency (especially for a Republican.)  And with Kasich on the ticket, I think Trump would be the odds on favorite to carry Ohio in the fall.  And Governor Kasich has run a very positive, very upbeat, issues-oriented presidential campaign.  Kasich has a strong proven track record – from chairing the Budget Committee in Congress which actually balanced the federal budget for the first time in a generation; to his 18 years on the Armed Services Committee; to a successful governorship which created jobs, cut taxes, and turned Ohio around from a failed Ted Strickland term as governor.  And perhaps most importantly, Trump and Kasich don’t seem to hate each other – and that’s always a good thing.

4 a good thing

In full disclosure, my predictions have been spotty at best over the past year (I really didn’t see the Trump train coming.)  And for all we know, Cruz or Kasich could start beating Trump in state after state from here on out, thus denying him the requisite 1,237 delegates prior to the convention, and resulting in a brokered (or contested) convention that denies Trump the nomination and gives it to someone else.  But I don’t think so.

I believe Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President, and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.  And I already told you who I thought would be their running mates.

5 their running mates

And I guess that’s enough for this week.  Oh, and Happy St. Patrick’s Day tomorrow!

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