Until last week, Donald Trump was losing to Hillary Clinton in virtually every national poll, and in some by a lot. But things are changing, rapidly.
The latest polls show Donald Trump up in three of them, and Hillary Clinton up in two. Trump’s up 42 – 37 in Rasmussen, up 45 – 42 in FOX News, and up 46 – 44 in The Washington Post/ABC News poll. Hillary Clinton’s up 46 – 43 in NBC News/Wall Street Journal, and 47 – 41 in the CBS News/New York Times poll. And in the Real Clear Politics average of all polls, Donald Trump is up by a hair (get it?) 43.4 – 43.2.
So what’s happening out there? First of all Republicans are coming together. Not completely, but to a considerable degree. The “Never Trump”ers are still out there, and some higher-ups are even trying to get Mitt Romney, or some comparable worthy, to run as an alternative Republican candidate, but thus far, no luck. (I think this would be a terrible mistake, because it would ensure a Hillary victory in the fall.) Let’s all hold hands, and repeat after me “We’re going to make America great again!”
The other thing that’s happening, Hillary Clinton just can’t seem to put away her 74-year-old, socialist-from-Vermont opponent. Bernie Sanders is like the energizer bunny out there – he just won’t give up. But realistically, the only chance he has, because of the corrupt super delegate advantage Hillary has, is if FBI Director Comey decides to indict her on the email scandal. And if that happens, and Hillary has to drop out, Sanders would probably have to duke it out with Vice President Joe Biden, or Secretary of State John Kerry, or both. We’ll see…
Of course the longer the race for the Democratic nomination drags out, the less time Hillary has to unite Democrats. And after being pulled so far to the left by Bernie, Hillary needs time to pretend that she’s a moderate again, in order to have any chance of appealing to independent voters. Free college education, job-killing increases in the minimum wage, putting greater value on black lives than any others, and basically adopting open borders, are all positions which Hillary has taken in her race to the left with Bernie Sanders. But they may not be so popular with general election voters. Once again, we’ll see.
Here’s another observation. It might normally be presumed that once Hillary finally vanquishes Bernie, all his supporters would naturally gravitate to her. They might not love Hillary, but they’re certainly not going to vote for Trump. Or are they? Or are at least some of them? Both Trump and Bernie Sanders are the barbarians at the gate – not Hillary Clinton. They are the outsiders – she’s Washington. Sanders and Trump are the ones who rail against China, oppose an activist U.S. foreign policy, threaten a trade war, and claim the system is rigged. The Sanders and Trump campaigns are movements, crusades. Revolution, defiance, and resistance is in the air – far from the plodding establishment Clinton campaign. So maybe at least a portion of the fervent Sanders supporters, will feel more at home in the Trump revival camp, than they will in the boring Clinton camp. Who knows?
In the final analysis, here’s why I think Trump may just pull off a win against Hillary Clinton this year. Virtually every election year, one or the other side, basically makes the claim that “it’s time for a change.” That term has been thrown around, in one form or another, for a long time, and in many elections. But this year, people are really –issed off. They’ve had it. Republicans and conservatives hate what Obama has done to the country. (And they don’t think Republicans in Washington have fought hard enough to stop Obama.) And Democrats and liberals (progressives), think that the system is rigged, to favor the rich and the undeserving (and anybody but themselves.) People all over the political spectrum want change – big time. They want to shake things up, a lot. And when you look at Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, which one is really more likely to shake things up?
Why Trump, of course. So in any other year, he probably wouldn’t stand a chance. But this year, when people are saying, in effect, let’s burn the damn place down. Well, Donald Trump may just be our next President.
