What Happened In Iowa? What’s Going to Happen in New Hampshire?

After months and months of pollsters telling us who was in the lead, and political pundits telling us who was likely to win and who didn’t have a chance, the good people of Iowa finally had the opportunity to actually vote.  And what we were being told, and what actually happened, were quite different.  Trump had been in the lead in Iowa for half a year, and the latest Des Moines Register poll, taken only three days before the caucus, and supposedly the gold standard in polling, had Trump winning with 28%, followed by Cruz at 24%, and Rubio with 15%.  The actual vote however had Cruz on top with the 28%, Trump in second place with the 24%, and Rubio only one point behind Trump at 23%.

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What happened?  Here’s my take.  Cruz was incredibly well-organized.  He had by far the best ground operation.  And evangelical voters who were a strong majority of voters in the Iowa Republican caucuses, went for Cruz.  So he did very well.

But what happened to Donald Trump?  In my view, it was his skipping the Republican debate that caused him to fall off in the final days.  And I’d predicted it in my blog last week when I said: “although I don’t believe this will hurt him among his current supporters, it might well adversely impact him among undecided voters.  There’s still a chance of course that Trump might decide to participate in the debate after all.  If I were Trump, I would.”  Well Trump apparently doesn’t read my blog, because he didn’t do the debate.  And according to exit polling, those who decided late who they were going to vote for, didn’t vote for Trump.  30% went for Rubio, 25% went for Cruz, and only 14% went for Trump.  I believe Trump’s skipping the debate cost him Iowa.  Of course we’ll never know for sure.

2 know for sure

Marco Rubio was also a winner in Iowa, even though he came in third place out of eleven candidates, because he far exceeded expectations.  He was only one point behind Donald Trump, and far surpassed all the other Republican candidates (except Ted Cruz of course.)  He should have a good head of steam going into New Hampshire.

3 into new hampshire

As for the Democrats, it was a virtual tie.  Although Hillary technically eeked out a victory, 49.9% to 49.6%, for all intents and purposes, it was tie.  A 74-year-old avowed socialist who honeymooned in Moscow (literally), came within a breath of upsetting the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, even though she’d started out the race beating Bernie Sanders by 50 points.  I would expect Hillary to head to New Hampshire, relieved that she can arguably claim victory in Iowa, but with the realization that she’s unlikely to win in New Hampshire.  For appearances sake, she’ll spend a number of days in New Hampshire, but will also campaign extensively in South Carolina, where her chances should be better because of demographics (large numbers of African American voters, who currently favor the Clintons over Bernie Sanders.)  Bernie should prevail in New Hampshire since he is the Senator from Vermont (right next door to New Hampshire.)

4 next door to new hampshire

On the Republican side, New Hampshire is likely to be a big brawl.  Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich will each be going all out to do well in New Hampshire.  Although all three made some effort in Iowa, each believe they have to shine in New Hampshire, or it just isn’t going to happen for them.

5 happen for them

That being said, after what happened in Iowa, the real battle is between the three heavyweights: Cruz, Trump, and Rubio.  Trump started out with a hefty lead in New Hampshire, but I believe it’s quite likely that that lead will dissipate.  One of Trump’s principal arguments for supporting him has been that he’s a winner, and now he’s not, at least not in Iowa.  (Although in Trump’s defense, I thought he was very gracious in his concession speech, and even jokingly said he’d come to love the people of Iowa so much, that he might buy a farm there some day.)

6 farm there someday

With the New Hampshire primary only five days away, we’re not going to have to wait too long to see how it turns out.  How much of a bump will Cruz and Rubio get out of their stronger than expected Iowa showings?  Will Trump’s supporters stick with him?  Will Bernie Sanders call for nationalizing all American businesses?  Will Hillary be indicted?  Stay tuned.

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