I just got home from the Republican National Convention a few days ago. The Democratic Convention began in Charlotte, North Carolina yesterday. (I wasn’t invited.)
On a side note, my mom was born in Charlotte in 1924 and lived there until she was 21. My dad, who was from Massachusetts, was stationed there for a while during World War II. They met at a U.S.O. dance. After he came back from the war in Europe, they got married in Charlotte, moved to Massachusetts for about a year, and then my dad found a job in Cincinnati. They moved here, started a family, and the rest as they say, is history.
Okay, back to the Convention. Even though the Democratic Convention is just getting started, I’m sure there will be a lot of Romney/Ryan bashing, claims that it’s all Bush’s fault, and that Obama is doing a great job as President (and deserves four more years.) And they’ll say it all with a straight face.
I would expect the two conventions, being back to back, to essentially cancel each other out. However, I believe that Mitt Romney will benefit slightly more than Obama from the conventions, since the public already knows Obama, and for the most part has already made up their minds about him, one way or the other. Romney on the other hand, is less well known, and the positive exposure he got from the Republican Convention will be more beneficial to him than the Democratic Convention will be for Obama. At least that’s the way I see it.
A Rasmussen poll of likely voters from two days ago showed Romney up 48% to 44%. On the other hand, a Gallup poll of registered voters showed Obama up 47% to 46%. And the Huffington Post, which tracks 403 national polls, averaged them to show Obama up by 1 point, 46% to 45%.
Perhaps most interestingly, two Colorado political science professors, who have been successfully predicting Presidential elections since 1980, predict that Romney will beat Obama. Their forecast model goes state by state, according to the Electoral College, and has been correct for the last 8 Presidential elections. They factor in such things as unemployment, economic conditions, and per capita income. They predict that Romney will win 320 electoral votes to Obama’s 218.
Of course the election is still more than two months away (62 days to be exact), and a lot can, and will, happen between now and Election Day. But I’m going to go out on a limb here, and say I believe Mitt Romney is going to beat Barack Obama. Obviously, I hope that’s the case, and have for a long time, but now I believe it.
Here’s why. Nearly twice as many people say they feel this country is on the wrong track than on the right track. The economy is still weak and unemployment remains unacceptably high, even after passing President Obama’s Stimulus. The American people haven’t warmed up to Obamacare. The national debt just hit the $16 trillion mark this week. Gas prices have doubled since Obama took office, and this Labor Day holiday saw them at their highest level in American history. And finally, and most significantly, when Americans ask themselves whether they’re better off than they were four years ago, most respond with an emphatic “NO!”
Obama must realize how much trouble he’s in, or he wouldn’t be relying on Bill Clinton to bail him out this week.
In conclusion, it’s my belief that Mitt Romney will defeat Barack Obama and become our 45th President of the United States.
