As I’ve mentioned in previous blog posts, one of Congressional Republicans’ greatest challenges this election cycle is historical. And that’s that when one party wins the presidency, the other party almost always picks up seats in the next election. In fact, over the last century, it’s happened 47 out of 50 times. That doesn’t mean there will be enough turnover to switch control of the House, but it does often happen. This year the Dems would need to pick up 23 seats (and of course mine is one they’re targeting.)
This week I’d like to focus on another challenge Republicans face. And Ironically, it’s success. Specifically, Republicans’ success in re-energizing the economy. We accomplished this principally through passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which lowered taxes on the vast majority of Americans, and by reducing overburdensome regulations, which resulted in businesses growing and creating more jobs for more people who needed them.
As a result, unemployment is below 4%. The rate of African-American and Hispanic-American unemployment is lower than it’s been in history. There are actually more job openings than there are people looking for work. (That’s one reason we need to improve our workforce education and skills development so people are prepared to fill the jobs that are available.)
Consumer confidence is up. Even wages, which had been stuck on hold for such a long time, are starting to increase, which will mean a better quality of life for more Americans.
So with all this good economic news, and Republicans having a very strong argument that it is the enactment of Republican policies that is responsible for it, how is that a problem for Republican re-election efforts this year? Well, it may seem counter-intuitive, but since the economy is now doing so well, polling is showing that “the economy and jobs” is not as important an issue to many voters right now. Because it IS doing so well. And other issues like health care are increasing in importance to many voters.
Pollsters will tell you that concern about health care generally favors Democrats in many of their surveys. So Republicans need to do a much better job getting the truth out about Republican health care proposals and solutions. And the truth is that the American people deserve a whole lot better than Obamacare. Obamacare has resulted in higher premiums for consumers, higher taxes to pay for it, and in many cases inferior health care. In my view the passage of Obamacare was just a step in the direction that most liberals/progressives really want to go. And that’s a complete and total takeover of health care by the government. You think health care’s expensive now – just wait until it’s free! (Just for the record, I can’t take credit for that line – it’s been attributed to P.J. O’Rourke.)
Let me conclude with this. Bill Clinton’s campaign guru, James Carville, famously had a sign hanging in their Little Rock Arkansas campaign headquarters which read “It’s the economy, Stupid.” And since there had been a pretty rough recession during their opponent, George H.W. Bush’s Administration, focus on the economy worked, and Bill Clinton defeated Bush. For Republicans to hold onto the House this year, it’s important that the American people are aware of why the economy is currently doing so well, and what’s at stake if they put the Democrats back in control. And we must also make sure that they are aware that our health care solutions are head and shoulders better than the Democrats’.
