A brokered convention occurs when no single candidate has won a majority of the delegates, after all the primaries and caucuses are completed. You’ll also hear it referred to as an open or contested convention, but it’s basically the same thing. The total number of possible delegates is 2,472 and it takes 1,237 to win the nomination. On the Republican side, the first caucus was in Iowa on February 1st, and the last primary is in South Dakota on June 7. The Republican Convention takes place in Cleveland July 18-21.
We’re down to four Republican candidates vying for the nomination, after having started out with 17. The debate stage is a lot less crowded (but a lot noisier). No doubt about it, Trump is in the lead. But what happens in Ohio and Florida next week is HUGE. If Marco Rubio doesn’t win in his home state of Florida, then he’s toast. (That’s assuming Rubio doesn’t drop out of the race prior to Florida, in order to avoid the embarrassment of losing his own state, thus salvaging his political future.) And if John Kasich doesn’t win in his home state of Ohio, he’s already said he’s outta here. But if either wins, he stays in – maybe on life support – but he battles on.
As for Ted Cruz, he already won his home state of Texas. And he won Alaska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Maine, and Idaho yesterday – not so shabby. So Cruz stays in until he wins 1,237 delegates, or Trump does, or it’s being fought out at a brokered convention in July.
Now it’s no secret that the so-called “establishment” is in a tizzy. They don’t particularly like the front runner, Donald Trump, because they think he’s unqualified, unelectable, and likely to go down in flames in November, taking a lot of Republican candidates with him. And they don’t like Ted Cruz, thinking he’s unelectable, a total jerk, and likely to go down in flames in November, taking a lot of Republican candidates with him.
The so-called “establishment” believes that either John Kasich or Marco Rubio would have an excellent chance of prevailing against Hillary Clinton in the fall and winning the Presidency. But Marco Rubio has won only one state, Minnesota, and one territory, Puerto Rico. And John Kasich has won exactly 0 states and territories. So it’s not looking good for the “establishment”, at least up to this point.
So back to the title of this week’s blog: are we headed for a brokered convention? If both Kasich and Rubio manage to win their home states, they both stay in, continuing to pick up delegates along the way, and therefore making it harder for Trump (or Cruz) to garner the necessary 1,237 delegates to wrap up the nomination prior to the convention. If neither wins their home state, then I think a brokered convention is highly unlikely. If one wins and one loses, then the political dynamics are muddied.
If at the end of the primary/caucus process, Trump (or someone else) is close to the 1,237 but not quite there, it REALLY gets interesting. Delegates are bound to vote for their candidate on the first ballot, but not on the second or subsequent ballots. There’s speculation that Speaker Paul Ryan, or Mitt Romney, or me (no, just kidding), could be drafted and become the Republican nominee for President.
Of course if Trump were denied the nomination at the convention, I think there’s a very good chance he would decide to run as an independent, taking a lot of his supporters with him. Under this scenario, we’re handing the Presidency to Hillary Clinton on a silver platter (assuming she hasn’t been indicted by then).
Anyway, we’ll know more next week on Tuesday, March 15, when the people of Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, the Northern Mariana Islands, and most importantly, Ohio and Florida, weigh in. See you next week.