Are We Headed for Another Shutdown?

Well the longest government shutdown in U.S. history is finally over. Of course we could be right back in the middle of another one in less than three weeks. So what’s going to happen?

The way I see it, there are three possible scenarios. One is that negotiations between President Trump and Congress take place, but no progress is made. No compromise. No money for the wall. The government shuts down again. Fortunately, I think this is the least likely scenario.

Another possibility is that real negotiations take place. Both sides are willing to compromise, at least somewhat. The President gives Democrats something more on DACA/Dreamers – perhaps letting them stay for more than three years (President Trump already offered them three, which Democrats rejected as not enough) and in return, Schumer and Pelosi say okay to additional funding for border security. The challenge of course, is that they will insist on staying as far away from the term “wall” as possible. Paraphrasing Bill Clinton, it all depends on what the definition of “wall” is. As long as President Trump is satisfied, I wouldn’t worry or get too hung up on what we call the thing – a wall, a fence, a barrier, whatever. The Dems just don’t want President Trump to get a victory. My advice to him would be, take the money, build the wall he wants, and call the thing “Medicare for All” or whatever if that makes the Democrats happy.

And the third possible scenario is, no deal, the government’s ready to shut down again, and rather than let that happen, President Trump declares a national emergency, and directs money from such things as military construction or flood control to be used to build his wall. Can he legally do that? It’s unclear. There’s no question that Liberals/Democrats would file lawsuits, probably in the 9th Circuit, the most liberal federal court in the nation, and President Trump would likely lose there. However, in the U.S. Supreme Court, it could go either way.

How is that? Well in general, at the federal level, only Congress can spend money. However, back in 1982, Congress passed legislation giving the President (through the Secretary of Defense) the power to declare a national emergency and spend money for national security purposes. President Trump, of course, has stated many times that allowing illegal aliens to flow across our border is a threat to our national security. But whether the Supreme Court would agree with President Trump on this is anybody’s guess. We may just find out in the not too distant future.

I’d rather see the second scenario I mentioned, negotiations, utilized to avoid another partial government shutdown. After all, as the elected representatives of the American people, and with the American people divided over the immigration issue, it is our job to work on, debate, and ultimately craft legislation which can pass the House and the Senate, and which the President would sign. Unfortunately, that’s often easier said than done.

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