Taiwan has been a longtime friend and ally of the United States, in a critical part of the world. The Chinese Communist Party has looked greedily across the 100 miles-or-so-wide Taiwan Strait separating China from Taiwan, considering when would be the best time to make their move.
Sooner rather than later, thought many experts following the disastrous US pullout from Afghanistan. After all, the Biden administration looked weak. Putin acted on that weakness, storming across the border into Ukraine. It was thought China invading Taiwan might be next. But Russia’s stumbles in Ukraine are hopefully causing China to pause, take stock, and reconsider. The best laid plans, particularly in war, do not always go according to the drawing board.
US strategy towards defending Taiwan has best been described as something called “strategic ambiguity.” Be vague; keep China guessing whether the United States and our allies would come to Taiwan’s defense should China attack them.
I personally believe this is dangerous. I prefer something defense experts refer to as “strategic clarity.” Be clear. Let it be known to China in advance that if they attack, we and our allies would come to Taiwan‘s defense. In my view, it is much less likely that China will act militarily if they know this in advance. Thus, it’s much less likely war will occur.
Okay, now for where I think Biden got it right. In Japan last weekend, Biden was asked whether the United States would defend Taiwan if they were attacked by China. His response was “yes, that’s the commitment we made.” His State Department folks immediately tried walking back his comments, but that’s the third time since Biden became president that he’s made such a clear, and I believe correct, response relative to Taiwan. Good for him.
Now, for where I think Biden got it wrong. Some years back, the United States was in discussions with 11 other Pacific Rim countries, to enter into a major trade agreement (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.) During the 2016 election cycle, both candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton came out against this trade agreement, the Trans Pacific Partnership (or TPP), so the US stayed out of it (the other countries entered into the agreement without the United States.)
To get back into the game, the Biden administration has been trying to form an alternative to the TPP, called the Indo Pacific Economic Framework. It would involve essentially the same countries, plus the United States. Taiwan has very much wanted to join this new group. Over the weekend, the Biden administration said “NO” to Taiwan. Dissing Taiwan like this, in my opinion, is disgraceful. They are a thriving democracy that shares our values. They have been exceedingly loyal to the United States. And they deserve better than this.
With one hand the Biden administration reached out and warmly shook Taiwan’s hand. With the other, it slapped Taiwan in the face. That’s not the way to treat a friend.