At this point, it sure doesn’t look like it. Donald Trump crushed the opposition in Nevada yesterday. He got 46% of the vote. Coming in a distant second was Marco Rubio at 24%, then Ted Cruz with 21%, followed by Ben Carson with 5%, and pulling up the rear was John Kasich with only 4%.
Just four days ago, Donald Trump garnered about a third of the vote in South Carolina (32.5% to be exact.) Marco Rubio edged out Ted Cruz for second place 22.5% to 22.3%.
Jeb Bush, who got less than 1 in 10 votes (7.8%) in South Carolina where he was supposed to be strong, decided it was time to call it quits. He had started out the race last year as the presumptive frontrunner – his father and brother both having been president after all – but he never really got off the ground. He was unable to slip the label Donald Trump had tagged him with – the low energy candidate.
It seems to me that the only way Donald Trump can possibly be stopped, is if it gets down to Trump vs. just one other Republican rival – and soon. The most likely candidate to be that rival in my view is Marco Rubio, who’s come in second in the last two contests – South Carolina and Nevada. I said long ago that I thought Rubio was the strongest Republican candidate to compete with the Democrats in the general election – but of course he may never get there. And to get down to a two person race, that would mean that the other three remaining candidates would have to drop out, and there’s no sign that any of them will do so soon.
Kasich, who I also think would be a very strong general election candidate, will likely stay in at least through Ohio’s primary, which is March 15th. Cruz will certainly stay in at least through the Texas primary, which is part of Super Tuesday next week. And Ben Carson still seems to be enjoying himself immensely on the campaign trail, so there’s no sign yet he’s going anywhere.
By the time it gets down to a Trump vs. one other person race, he may have already racked up enough votes to make him unstoppable. We may get a little clearer picture of where the race stands next week, because it’s Super Tuesday, and 11 states will be weighing in – nine primaries and two caucuses. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia. I expect Donald Trump to do extremely well across the board, with the possible exception of Cruz winning his home state of Texas.
Another observation. There’s some speculation that Marco Rubio hasn’t gone negative or been particularly aggressive toward Donald Trump, because he’s got his eye on a possible vice presidential slot with Trump in the general election. After all, unlike Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio gave up his Senate seat to run for the Presidency, so he’s all in. Of course not going negative on Trump could just be recognition that others who have tried, Rick Perry, Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, and Jeb Bush for example, were crushed like bugs by Trump.
And here’s something else to think about. Some of the big Midwestern states, like Ohio, and Illinois, and Michigan, are coming up soon. John Kasich would be expected to do well there. However, absent Kasich, a lot of those votes would likely go to Rubio. Perhaps Rubio and Kasich could get together and discuss a potential president/vice president ticket. After all, Ohio and Florida are hugely important swing states that will ultimately be key in Republicans winning the White House in November. Of course, agreeing which one is at the top of the ticket, and which one is in the supporting role, would be problematic. I’m just saying.
But one thing is clear. Donald Trump is now the clear frontrunner in this race for the Republican nomination. It’s now his to lose. And as he’ll tell you, he’s all about winning.