First of all, at this point in the Republican primary cycle, Trump’s way ahead. So he really didn’t need to prove anything at the debate. And he really didn’t even need to avoid screwing up, because errors he’s made thus far in the campaign, which probably would have been fatal to most candidates, don’t seem to hurt his campaign at all. Offending Hispanics by calling them rapists and murderers, offending women by his attacks on Megyn Kelly and Carly Fiorina (“who’s gonna vote for that face”), offending American POWs by saying he prefers soldiers who don’t get captured, offending Muslims by banning all of them from coming into the country, and on and on, just seem to make him stronger.
The only candidate on the stage to even attempt to take on Donald Trump was a guy who’s at 3-5% in the polls, Jeb Bush. Jeb’s strongest line against Donald Trump was saying that Trump wouldn’t be successful at “insulting his way to the presidency.” (Although the polling thus far seems to indicate otherwise.) I would say that this was Jeb Bush’s strongest debate, but it may well be too little, too late.
Another important feature of the debate was the battle between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz (to be the alternative to Trump.) The principal attack by Cruz on Rubio was that Rubio is allegedly weak on immigration. The principal attack by Rubio on Cruz was that Cruz is allegedly weak on security. Senator Rand Paul, who’s more or less aligned with Cruz on security issues, joined Cruz in piling on Rubio. Other candidates tried to inject themselves into the fray by pointing out that this bickering was why the public holds politicians in such low esteem. (It’s probably just one of many reasons the public hates politics and politicians.) I really don’t think that either Rubio or Cruz gained much, or was hurt much, by the spirited exchange between the two, because they seemed really in the weeds in their criticism of each other. (Christie compared the dispute between Cruz and Rubio as an argument as to how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.) I do however think that both Rubio and Cruz are two of the strongest candidates (besides Trump of course) who may well end up being the Republican nominee.
In my view, Marco Rubio has consistently been the strongest performer in each of the Republican debates. Carly Fiorina also was a standout in the debate, as she has been in all the others. She may once again get a bump in the polls, but for whatever reason, her numbers seem to fall back down to unimpressive levels within a few weeks of each debate. Why? I think it’s because she either lacks a strong ground game (a campaign organization, staff, volunteers, etc.) or Donald Trump has been so successful at grabbing and holding the media’s attention, that once the debate is in the distant past, she’s ignored by the media, and falls back to earth.
The CNN debate moderators, predictably tried to goad the Republican candidates into attacking each other, (which they sometimes did – particularly the Rubio vs Cruz brawl.) I thought the candidates were at their best when they refused to take the bait, and instead pointed out the deficiencies and failures of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, who are after all the real opposition, not each other. I thought Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina and Jeb Bush and Chris Christie were the most effective in taking the fight to the Democratic competition.
A few other notable moments during the debate: Cruz promised to, among other things, complete the wall along the Mexican border, and get Donald Trump to pay for it (Trump seemed to get a kick out of this.) Rand Paul made a reference to Christie’s “bridgegate scandal”, which seemed to fall flat. And Rand Paul had what sounded like a rather small cheering section in the audience, that cheered wildly at every statement he made. Fiorina said she’d get the private sector to play a much greater role in our nation’s security, particularly in fighting against cyber-attacks (she said the government is too unwieldy and ineffective.) Chris Christie said that Barack Obama is a “feckless weakling.” (He’s right.) And Wolf Blitzer acted like, well, like Wolf Blitzer.
All in all, it was a pretty good debate. It may move the poll numbers a little bit, but I doubt that it will have a major effect. Trump will still be in the lead, and it appears that his chief rivals, at least for the time being, will be Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. And as Chris Christie said during the debate, any one of the Republican candidates would do a far better job for the American people, than Barack Obama has done, or that Hillary Clinton would do.