So who’s going to be Donald Trump’s Democratic rival for the presidency this time around? The truth is, no one knows for sure. And Joe Biden has been the leader of the Democrat pack since even before he officially threw his hat into the ring back in April. But I think it’s likely to be someone other than Joe (and shortly I’ll tell you who.) Here’s my analysis.
Joe’s the sentimental favorite for a lot of Democrats. The main thing he’s got going for him, is many Democrats think he’d have the best chance of beating Trump – and that’s the most important thing for a lot of Dems. Plus he was Barack Obama’s loyal VP. And African Americans in particular find that an important attribute. But Joe is gaffe-prone. And boring. And has clearly lost a step. And he’s old news. So I think he eventually falters and the Dems pick somebody other than him.
Next, let’s talk about Bernie Sanders. He was the darling of the “anybody but Hillary” crowd last time. And he almost won the Democratic nomination for president. But he didn’t. He was the real deal – on the far left on every issue, and the left loved him for it. But this time his far-left agenda has been adopted by most of the other Democrat candidates, so he’s not so special anymore. And he’s old. And his yelling at everybody wears a little thin over time. He’s fading. And I don’t think he’s going to be the Democratic nominee either.
Next, Pete Buttigieg, the guy who seemed to come out of nowhere, and the mainstream, liberal, press (same thing) just loved him. Then they seemed to get tired of him. And he also seems to be fading. It probably has a lot to do with a police shooting which occurred in South Bend, Indiana (where he’s mayor), and his less-than-deft handling of the matter. He has raised a ton of money thus far, but that’s likely to dry up as his candidacy does.
Kamala Harris. She’s the hardest candidate, I think, to predict whether or not she could be the nominee. On paper, she’s very credible. Former prosecutor. Senator from our most populous state. Impressive on the stump. Had one of the most memorable moments in the debates, when she essentially accused Joe Biden of being a racist (for not being sufficiently supportive of forced busing.) She immediately jumped in the polls, but then it was revealed that her position on busing was pretty much the same as Joe’s and she’s faded back to obscurity once again. In my opinion, her best chance of winning the nomination, is that if she can stick around in the top tier long enough, African American voters, who currently support Biden, might just abandon him for her, just as they did when they left Hillary Clinton for the relatively unknown Barack Obama back in 2008. We’ll see.
Then there are a bunch of also-rans, like Julian Castro, and Cory Booker, and Beto O’Rourke, and a cast of thousands, (okay, actually just dozens.) There’s an outside chance that one of these folks, or one of the others that I won’t waste your time mentioning here, might catch fire, surge ahead of the rest of this motley crew, and ultimately win the nomination. But I don’t think so. So, rather than spend time on the also-rans, I’ll now focus on the person I think most likely to be Donald Trump’s opponent.
Elizabeth Warren. I know, President Trump derisively swatted her aside with the pejorative label “Pocahontas” in the past, but you’ve got to give her credit for a pretty impressive comeback. She was way down in single digits for quite some time, but she’s now pushed Bernie Sanders aside to become the number two Dem behind Joe Biden, and she’s now breathing down Uncle Joe’s neck. And she’s done it through a lot of hard work, organization, and taking a stand on issue after issue.
Now let me be clear. Her positions on those issues are terrible. They’re unrealistic. They’d ruin the economy. They’d bankrupt the country. But the hard-left Democrat base loves them. And they’re beginning to love her. Free college. Free healthcare (even for illegal immigrants). Soak the rich. Green New Deal. Impeach Trump, and put him in jail. And on and on.
So if I had to put money on who the Democrats will ultimately settle on to take on Donald Trump, I’d put my money on Elizabeth Warren. Then I’d vote against her in November of 2020.