Well, it’s that time of year again. Time for me to go out on a limb, and predict what’s going to happen in the upcoming year. Here goes.
I’m obviously most familiar with what goes on in the U.S. House of Representatives, so I’ll start my predictions there. The Democrats will elect Nancy Pelosi Speaker tomorrow when the new House is sworn in. There will be some defections, but not enough to cost her the job she’s sought for the past 8 years, since she last held that position.
Second, the Democrats will overreach with their newfound power in the House (the majority party usually does.) They will misread the message the voters were sending last November, interpreting it as a green light to advance big-government, big-spending, socialist policies. Fortunately, the still-Republican Senate and President Trump will prevent them from doing too much damage.
Third, the Mueller Report will finally be released. I don’t want to prejudge what might be in it, since as a senior Member of the Judiciary Committee, I’ll be one of the folks in the House tasked to deal with it. Ideally, both Republicans and Democrats will put politics aside, and act in a professional and responsible manner with the evidence presented (but don’t hold your breath.)
Fourth, whatever the Mueller Report ultimately determines, Democrats in the House will be about three things – investigate, investigate, and oh yeah, investigate. The Trump Administration isn’t gonna know what hit them. A whole lot of lawyers are going to make a whole lot of money.
Fifth, now for something positive. Even though the stock market has been quite volatile recently, I believe the overall economy will remain healthy. Because of the passage of the Republican tax cut bill (The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act), I believe unemployment will remain at historically low levels, and the economy will be strong. At some point, since economies are to some extent cyclical, we will inevitably experience a downturn, but I think the economy remains strong in 2019.
Sixth, as much as I would like to restrain government spending, and move towards a balanced budget, I’m not optimistic that much progress will be made here in 2019. Politicians just love to spend other people’s money. As your Representative in Congress, I think it’s important that you know I’m continuing the fight (as reflected in my high score with Citizens Against Government Waste.) But with Democrats taking over the House, restraining spending is likely to move even lower on the House agenda.
Seventh, most political news will gravitate around who is going to be the Democratic nominee against President Trump next time around. There are dozens of possibilities, but there’s no clear front runner at this time. I will go out on a limb and predict this: although some are saying Hillary could have another race in her, even if she decided to run for the nomination again, she wouldn’t be the Democratic nominee in 2020, or ever again.
Eighth, what about our governor, John Kasich? Will he take on Donald Trump? I think he’d like to be President. But he has to know that President Trump is solid with the Republican base, and therefore not really vulnerable in a Republican presidential primary. If Kasich runs, I think he’ll do so as an Independent. Kind of like Ross Perot, but with an entirely different constituency. He’d appeal to some Republicans who never warmed to Trump, to a lot of Independents, and to some Democrats (Kasich’s been called the Democrats’ favorite Republican.) And like Perot, he probably wouldn’t win, but he could be a spoiler for Trump, and make it much more likely a Democrat is elected President next time around.
Ninth, I’d like to say President Trump’s tough talk, and then warming up with North Korea, will work, but as I said at the time, put me in the category of, skeptical. I’ve seen no sign that Kim Jong Un is serious about abandoning his nuclear program, and I think ratcheting up sanctions and putting more pressure on China to put more pressure on North Korea are the only things short of military action that could have any real possibility of working.
And finally, tenth, I’m a big homer, so let me predict that 2019 will be a big turnaround year for either the Reds, or Bengals, or hopefully both. In the past, a more naive me would have predicted a trip to the World Series, or the Super Bowl, but even a politician wants to hold onto at least a semblance of credibility. So I’ll predict a BETTER 2019 than 2018 for both teams (I know, that might not be saying much.)
Anyway, for what it’s worth, there are my predictions for the upcoming year. But however things turn out, I truly wish you and your loved ones a healthy and happy 2019. Happy New Year!