Let’s begin this week’s blog by keeping those who have been directly impacted by Hurricane Sandy in our thoughts and prayers. If you’d like to help, here are a few phone contacts: 1-800-RED-CROSS, 1-800-SAL-ARMY, and 513-793-6256 (Matthew 25: Ministries). Our weather in the Greater Cincinnati area has been affected by the hurricane, but not nearly to the extent of our neighbors to the east. We’ll keep them in our prayers.
So where does the election stand? Republicans should hold the House, although Democrats may pick up seats here and there, but probably only in single digits. Since Democrats would have to pick up 25 seats to put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker’s Chair, I don’t see that happening and John Boehner is likely to remain Speaker for the next two years.
The Senate is still in play, but because of ill-considered comments about rape by Republican candidates in Missouri and Indiana, Republican chances in both those states are now tenuous at best. Senate races in Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Massachusetts are close and up for grabs.
Now for the big prize – the Presidency. My money’s on Mitt Romney (figuratively that is) to be the next President of the United States. I believe recent polling indicates that momentum is in his favor. The debates helped him immensely. They shattered the negative image that had been painted of Mitt Romney by hundreds of millions of dollars of TV ads. Romney wasn’t the callous, uncaring, robotic, robber baron, warmonger, that we’d heard about. He was instead a smart, compassionate, confident, generous, peace-loving, potential President.
Most of the national polls now show the race either tied, or Romney up slightly or moderately. The Ohio Poll in Sunday’s Enquirer had the candidates tied at 49 to 49 percent. NPR had it Romney 49%, Obama 48% (I’m guessing Big Bird voted for Obama). The Battleground Poll (which is a national poll and not just of the battleground states – kind of confusing) and done by a Democrat, Celinda Lake, and a Republican Ed Goeas, and therefore usually is pretty reliable, found the race was 52% Romney, 47% Obama. And I believe most importantly, the Gallup Poll also has a five point margin, Romney at 51%, Obama at 46%.
And perhaps most encouraging, Gallup believes that the electorate turnout will be strongly Republican this year. Gallup explains that in 2004 (Bush vs. Kerry), 48% of voters were self-described Republicans, and 48% were self-described Democrats. In 2008 (Obama vs. McCain) 54% of voters were self-described Democrats and only 42% were self-described Republicans – a 12% advantage for Democrats. This year, as a result of their extensive polling, Gallup projects that only 46% of voters will be self-described Democrats and 49% will be self-described Republicans.
Gallup goes on to say that the reason so many of the polls this year have tended to favor Obama, is that when most other pollsters have detected the surge towards self-identifying as Republican, they’ve considered it a sampling error, and have re-weighted the poll to be more Democrat, and therefore more pro-Obama. Gallup’s theory seemed credible to me (plus I want to believe it’s true) and we’ll find out for sure next Tuesday when the only poll that matters will finally be taken.
Finally, many of us have expected some sort of “October surprise” to rear its ugly head. (Like George W. Bush’s DUI mysteriously appearing 30 years after the fact), which could impact the election at the 11th hour. An attack on Iran, or a treaty with Iran, or another 47% -type undercover video, or a smear charge targeting Romney, or something else entirely, are all possibilities. Even Hurricane Sandy could be considered an October surprise, although obviously this was a natural disaster, and not something orchestrated by one side or the other.
Next week, when I write my blog, hopefully we’ll know what happened (unless of course we have another Bush v Gore, with Ohio potentially replacing Florida.) In the meantime, don’t forget to vote. And, “make it a habit, vote for Chabot!”