Everybody seemed to think that Donald Trump was going to win big in New York yesterday – and he did. And most people thought that Hilary Clinton was going to beat Bernie Sanders in New York, the state she represented for 8 years in the United States Senate, and she did, although not quite as huge.
But to be honest with you, I’m a little tired of talking about, and writing about, the presidential race. A number of the candidates are driving me a little nuts with some of the things they’re saying, and doing, and claiming, and accusing their opponents of.
So I decided to take a break from the campaign this week. To write about something entirely different for a change, and something that’s important. And that’s that Russia’s Vladimir Putin is running circles around our President, Barack Obama. Eating his lunch. And not only is it embarrassing for Barack Obama, but it’s dangerous for our country.
The Obama Administration’s bungling of the U.S.-Russian relationship began with then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton famously presenting a red button to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, which she thought said “reset,” but actually said, “overcharge.” This was only a month-and-a-half into the Administration, and the Obama folks were not only signaling that we were the supplicants, but that we were incompetent. The Obama Administration’s reset also signaled that Russia was going to get away unscathed with its 2008 aggression against its neighbor, Georgia, and it’s annexing of Georgia’s sovereign territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Some months later, still in the first year of the Obama presidency, it was announced that we were scrapping our agreement with two key, formerly behind the Iron Curtain allies, Poland and the Czech Republic, to build a missile defense shield. The shield was to defend us and our European Allies from Iranian missile capabilities, and when one considers just how bad a deal this Administration negotiated with the Iranians, we sure could use that missile shield. Despite the fact that the shield was intended to defend us from bad Iranian intentions, Putin whined that it was a military threat to Russia. The Obama Administration caved, our new Eastern European allies were thrown under the bus, rightfully feeling betrayed, and vulnerable, and Russia and Iran got what they wanted, and learned that this new American president could be played.
And who can forget the famous exchange between Barack Obama and outgoing Russian President Dimitry Medvedev, when our Commander-in-Chief, not realizing that a camera was picking up his every word, assured Medvedev that Obama would have “more flexibility” to cave in even more in the future, once he got the pesky upcoming election out of the way. Medvedev responded, “I will transmit this information to Vladimir.”
I remember thinking at the time, this is one of the most outrageous things I’ve ever heard a President say. He was essentially telling Russia, let me get reelected, and then I’ll sell out my country. Mitt Romney attempted to use Obama’s gaffe (a gaffe of course being when a politician in Washington tells the truth), but got little mileage out of it. Romney was too busy defending himself from his own “47%” gaffe. I’m still amazed that Obama got away with saying something so outrageous.
Around the same time, Obama was busy playing Hamlet with respect to Syria. Should he authorize the use of military force in Syria, or not? After hemming and hawing for months, he finally announced that the use of chemical weapons by Syria was the red line. Use chemical weapons, and we’re coming to get you. “Chemical weapons…being utilized…that would change my calculation.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined in, saying, “and everyone has made it clear to the Syrian regime, that (the use of chemical weapons) is a red line for the world.”
Of course Syria did use chemical weapons, sarin gas specifically, killing hundreds and hundreds of people. And despite what the Obama Administration had said they’d do, they did nothing. Putin saw an opportunity to boost Russian prestige, so he stepped in with a Russian plan for Syria to turn its chemical weapons over to international control. In essence, Putin bailed out a dithering Barack Obama. Putin appeared decisive, and formidable. Obama appeared indecisive, and weak, and lost.
And then there’s Ukraine. By this time, Putin had had plenty of opportunities to take the measure of Barack Obama. Putin knew he could do virtually anything, and there’d be a nonchalant response by the Obama Administration, but no real action. He knew that our NATO allies were so dependent on Russian energy supplies, that they wouldn’t risk any real action against Russia either. Besides, what European military forces are there nowadays? Very few of the NATO countries spend anywhere near the 2% of GDP that they’re committed to spending for their militaries. NATO is arguably a hollowed-out paper tiger. Putin knows this. Maybe not obsolete, as Donald Trump was roundly criticized for saying. But certainly not the finely-tuned machine that was envisioned to protect the free countries of Europe from becoming like their Eastern European brethren behind what Winston Churchill had aptly named an Iron Curtain.
So masked by the goodwill of the Sochi Olympic games, Putin decided to make his move against his former vassal state, Ukraine. Putin began by invading Crimea, then holding a bogus referendum vote, which he used as an excuse to outright annex Crimea. The West lamely protested, but again did nothing. Russia has continued its incursion into Eastern Ukraine for several years now. The Ukrainians have fought bravely, but they are outgunned. The Obama Administration has sent blankets and MRE’s (meals ready to eat) but still refuses to provide what Ukraine really needs, sophisticated weapons so they have a fighting chance to defend themselves against Russian aggression.
In the last several years, I’ve traveled to Ukraine, and to Poland, and the Baltic nations, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. I’ve met with my counterparts in their parliaments, I’ve met with presidents and prime ministers, and generals, and soldiers, and ambassadors, and our country teams at our embassies, throughout the region. And my conclusion is that these nations, our allies, are scared to death of what Russia will do next, and for good reason. Russia could move in, militarily, or through the use of thug militias, or ethnically Russian sympathizers already within these countries, or by a combination of all these tactics, virtually at any time. And there’s reason to believe that the West’s response would be – not much. And whether or not that’s true, Putin has every reason to believe that it IS true. And it’s my belief that he will do virtually whatever he believes he can get away with.
All you have to do is look at what Putin did last week. Russian fighter jets made simulated attacks on an American warship in international waters, coming dangerously close to the ship. Then just days later, Russian fighters did the same thing again, this time making a threatening run at a U.S. reconnaissance plane in international airspace, coming within just feet of hitting our plane. This provocative and dangerous behavior would never have occurred if Putin believed he was dealing with a truly capable and determined Administration.
The bottom line is, due to the Obama Administration’s intentional withdrawal from America’s traditional leadership role, there is a power vacuum around the globe. And that vacuum is being filled by bad actors. From China building islands in the South China Sea, to the cancerous growth of ISIS in the Middle East following the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq, to Putin running amok in Eastern Europe and elsewhere, the bad actors are on the march. And the Obama Administration watches passively as the parade goes by, sitting on the sidelines. Contemplating the really important issues, like climate change.